TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Osasuna vs. Real Madrid CF
Volume:
$7,726,089
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional La Liga soccer match between CA Osasuna and Real Madrid CF scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are predicting the outcome of the match after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with separate binary markets for each team's victory and a draw outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market resolves YES upon game cancellation with no make-up, while Kalshi's tie market only resolves YES if the game is played and ends in a tie. This creates a settlement mismatch in the cancellation scenario.Hero Tip:
If you are long the draw on Polymarket and short on Kalshi, a game cancellation would profit Polymarket but leave Kalshi unresolved or resolve differently. Conversely, if the game is played and ends in a tie, both platforms resolve YES. Monitor La Liga's official schedule and cancellation policies for February 21, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Osasuna win (YES if Osasuna wins, NO otherwise), Real Madrid win (YES if Real Madrid wins, NO otherwise), and Draw (YES if match ends in a draw, YES also if game is canceled with no make-up, NO otherwise). All refer to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets that each resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: Real Madrid wins, Osasuna wins, or Tie. No explicit cancellation clause provided; standard Kalshi protocol would likely resolve such markets NO or leave them open pending rescheduling.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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