TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca
Volume:
$1,196,427
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the La Liga soccer match between CA Osasuna and RCD Mallorca scheduled for March 6, 2026. Markets are offered on three mutually exclusive outcomes: Osasuna win, Mallorca win, or draw. Resolution is based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Osasuna win, Mallorca win, Tie) are specified to resolve to Yes, making simultaneous settlement impossible. Polymarket uses coherent binary logic but applies asymmetric cancellation rules (draw resolves Yes on cancellation; wins resolve No), creating a basis mismatch between platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets as currently specified—the resolution structure is logically impossible. On Polymarket, the draw market has embedded cancellation optionality (resolves Yes if game is canceled) that does not exist in the win markets. If you are long the draw on Polymarket, you have implicit long exposure to cancellation risk, which may not be priced in. Verify with both platforms whether the match can be postponed (remains open) or canceled (triggers resolution) before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Specifies three separate markets covering all possible outcomes (Osasuna win, Mallorca win, Tie). Each market resolves to Yes if its outcome occurs. However, the platform description states all three resolve to Yes, which is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided.
- Polymarket: Offers three binary markets: Osasuna win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Mallorca win (Yes/No). On postponement, markets remain open. On cancellation with no make-up: Osasuna win resolves No, Draw resolves Yes, Mallorca win resolves No. This creates asymmetric cancellation exposure.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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