TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca
kalshi
polymarket

CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca

Volume:
$1,196,427

Draw (CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca)

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 7, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$151,305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,722
N/A
N/A
$15,688
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CA Osasuna

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$602,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Osasuna

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153,692
N/A
N/A
$140,088
Settled
No
polymarket

RCD Mallorca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mallorca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,083
N/A
N/A
$58,644
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the La Liga soccer match between CA Osasuna and RCD Mallorca scheduled for March 6, 2026. Markets are offered on three mutually exclusive outcomes: Osasuna win, Mallorca win, or draw. Resolution is based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Osasuna win, Mallorca win, Tie) are specified to resolve to Yes, making simultaneous settlement impossible. Polymarket uses coherent binary logic but applies asymmetric cancellation rules (draw resolves Yes on cancellation; wins resolve No), creating a basis mismatch between platforms.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets as currently specified—the resolution structure is logically impossible. On Polymarket, the draw market has embedded cancellation optionality (resolves Yes if game is canceled) that does not exist in the win markets. If you are long the draw on Polymarket, you have implicit long exposure to cancellation risk, which may not be priced in. Verify with both platforms whether the match can be postponed (remains open) or canceled (triggers resolution) before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Specifies three separate markets covering all possible outcomes (Osasuna win, Mallorca win, Tie). Each market resolves to Yes if its outcome occurs. However, the platform description states all three resolve to Yes, which is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided.
  • Polymarket: Offers three binary markets: Osasuna win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Mallorca win (Yes/No). On postponement, markets remain open. On cancellation with no make-up: Osasuna win resolves No, Draw resolves Yes, Mallorca win resolves No. This creates asymmetric cancellation exposure.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.