TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Estudiantes de La Plata
Volume:
$60,597
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CA Newell's Old Boys and Estudiantes de La Plata scheduled for February 25, 2026. The markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: a win for Newell's Old Boys, a win for Estudiantes de La Plata, or a draw, all evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market includes a cancellation clause that resolves to YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, while Kalshi's draw market only resolves YES for an actual tie result during play. Win markets (Newell's Old Boys and Estudiantes) are consistent across platforms, both resolving NO on cancellation.Hero Tip:
Track AFA fixture status and cancellation risk. The divergence only matters if the game is canceled. For normal match outcomes, all three markets across both platforms will resolve consistently. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket draw holders win while Kalshi draw holders lose—a significant payoff difference.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Newell's Old Boys win (YES if win, NO otherwise), Estudiantes win (YES if win, NO otherwise), and Draw (YES if tie OR if game canceled with no make-up, NO otherwise). Win markets resolve NO on cancellation; draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Source: AFA.
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets covering the same match: Tie (YES if match ends in draw after 90+stoppage), Newell's Old Boys win (YES if Newell's wins after 90+stoppage), and Estudiantes win (YES if Estudiantes wins after 90+stoppage). No explicit cancellation clause provided; standard market practice implies all resolve NO if game does not occur.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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