TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Who will score first between CA Mineiro and EC Bahia?

Volume:
$1,764

Atletico Mineiro MG

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 7:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Atletico Mineiro MG

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
$553
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CA Mineiro

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

EC Bahia BA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
$292
Settled
No
polymarket

EC Bahia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first team to score in a Brasileiro Serie A match between CA Mineiro (Atletico Mineiro MG) and EC Bahia scheduled for July 21, 2026. The market resolves based on which team, if any, scores first during the match, with different platforms defining the scope of play differently.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal scope divergence: Polymarket limits resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time, while Kalshi includes extra time periods. This creates different outcomes if a goal is scored only during extra time.Hero tip: Monitor whether the match requires extra time. If it does and a goal is scored in extra time, Polymarket resolves to Neither while Kalshi resolves to the scoring team. Position sizing should account for this scenario probability.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: First-to-score market resolves within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Outcomes are CA Mineiro, EC Bahia, or Neither. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded from resolution scope.
  • Kalshi: First-to-score market resolves across entire game including regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods. Outcomes are Yes (if specified team scores first) or Yes (if no team scores). Includes extra time in resolution scope.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between CA Mineiro and EC Bahia, scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CA Mineiro" if CA Mineiro are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

The market evaluates first-goal scoring across the complete match duration, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Resolution is determined by which team records the opening goal. If the first goal is an own goal, the market resolves based on the team credited with the goal. The match is a professional Brasileiro Serie A fixture originally scheduled for July 21, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

The first-goal scorer market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on which team will score first in the CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia match. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants pricing the likelihood of each outcome. The dashboard displays current odds, trading volume of $1,764, and 24-hour volume of $1,635, giving you a live snapshot of how the crowd is positioning ahead of kickoff. By tracking both venues simultaneously, you can spot pricing inefficiencies and monitor shifts in market sentiment as match conditions evolve.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and risk management, then adjust for betting volume and liability. Prediction markets like those tracked here rely on continuous trader participation, where prices emerge from supply and demand. This often produces sharper, more efficient pricing because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. However, sportsbook odds may reflect larger professional syndicates and tighter spreads, while prediction markets can show wider ranges depending on liquidity. Comparing both helps identify value and understand how different communities assess the same event.

Team news—injuries, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly alter first-goal odds. Early kickoff momentum, possession patterns, and shot quality in the opening minutes will influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions and pitch state may favor attacking or defensive play. Unexpected red cards or early substitutions can reshape expectations. Social media sentiment and expert commentary often trigger rapid repricing as new information spreads. Live match footage and real-time statistics feed trader decisions, so this market can swing sharply in the first half as the actual game dynamics become clear. Monitoring team news and pre-match conditions is essential for timing your trades.