TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia?

Volume:
$651,975

Draw (CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia)

 - Polymarket

Draw (CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 11:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (CA Mineiro vs. EC Bahia)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$72,739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 goals scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,133
N/A
N/A
$24,457
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CA Mineiro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$229,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 2.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$165,387
N/A
N/A
$77,668
Settled
No
polymarket

EC Bahia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 3.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,641
N/A
N/A
$30,327
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 4.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,262
N/A
N/A
$15,866
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 5.5 goals scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$453
N/A
N/A
$453
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether the CA Mineiro versus EC Bahia match scheduled for July 21, 2026 will end in a draw, with the current aggregated consensus probability at 100.0% from Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution is based on official CBF Brasileiro Series A final match statistics. Watch for the match conclusion on July 21, 2026 to confirm the final result. The second outcome, whether CA Mineiro will win, has a probability of 0.1%.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi align on the same match date (July 21, 2026), same scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties), same primary source (official governing body statistics with credible reporting fallback), and identical postponement/cancellation handling.Primary resolution logic: Official CBF (Confederacao Brasileira de Futebol) Brasileiro Series A final match statistics; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion

Core resolution logic:

  • Match outcome (CA Mineiro win, EC Bahia win, or draw) determined by official final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time
  • Total goals markets (over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) resolve Yes if the combined goal count meets or exceeds the specified threshold
  • Resolution scope explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootouts
  • If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the rescheduled match is completed
  • If match is canceled with no make-up game: outcome markets (win/loss) resolve No; draw market resolves Yes
  • Official final score revisions made after market resolution are not reprocessed

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Match Postponement: Markets remain open and unresolved until the rescheduled match is completed; resolution then occurs based on the final result of the completed match
  • Match Cancellation Without Make-up: CA Mineiro win market resolves No; EC Bahia win market resolves No; Draw market resolves Yes; Goals markets resolve based on zero goals scored (all resolve No)
  • Official Statistics Delay: If CBF does not publish final statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, resolution may use consensus from credible reporting sources
  • Post-Resolution Score Revision: Any official score revisions announced after market resolution are not reprocessed; market settlement stands as originally declared
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official CBF publication of final match statistics, or within 2 hours post-match conclusion if credible reporting consensus is required; markets remain open if match is postponed until rescheduled match completionOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Tuesday, July 21, 2026 between CA Mineiro and EC Bahia.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the total goals scored by both teams in the Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia professional Brasileiro soccer game originally scheduled for July 21, 2026, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Each market outcome resolves to Yes if the total goals exceed its specified threshold: 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, 3.5 goals, or 4.5 goals respectively. The final goal count determines resolution across all threshold levels simultaneously.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs in real time through continuous price discovery. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, less biased estimates because traders risk real capital and compete directly. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing this market's odds across venues reveals which pricing model the crowd trusts more and can signal value for informed bettors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket may emphasize match outcome questions, drawing soccer-focused traders, while Kalshi might concentrate volume on goal-total markets, attracting a different strategic crowd. Regulatory differences, settlement speed, and platform UI also shape where traders congregate. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit them, but during low-liquidity windows they can persist. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and time your entry or exit more effectively.

Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—can shift odds significantly, especially for key players. Recent form, head-to-head history, and weather conditions on match day all influence trader sentiment. Betting syndicates and sharp money flowing into one side often trigger cascading price moves as other traders follow. Social media momentum and mainstream sports coverage can amplify retail interest. Late-breaking tactical announcements or coaching decisions announced pre-match may spark volatility. Monitor both platforms continuously; large volume spikes or sudden directional moves often precede broader market repricing.