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24H VOL:

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$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors
polymarket
kalshi

CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors

Volume:
$192,703

Boca Juniors

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 5, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Boca Juniors

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$58,676
N/A
N/A
$25,189
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CA Boca Juniors

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31,504
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lanus

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,150
N/A
N/A
$52,527
Settled
No
polymarket

CA Lanús

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,945
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,258
N/A
N/A
$15,155
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (CA Lanús vs. CA Boca Juniors)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the March 4, 2026 Argentina Primera División match between CA Lanús and CA Boca Juniors. Markets predict the outcome (Boca win, Lanús win, or draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket applies asymmetric cancellation logic (Boca/Lanús resolve No; Draw resolves Yes if canceled), while Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation clause, creating ambiguity in edge-case resolution.Hero tip: Verify with AFA and both platforms whether a canceled match with no makeup is treated as a non-event (all markets void or revert) or as a draw by default. Polymarket's current rules create a logical inconsistency: a canceled match cannot simultaneously be 'not a Boca win' AND 'a draw.' Request written clarification before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Boca Win, Lanús Win, Draw). Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves Boca and Lanús to No, but Draw to Yes. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (Boca/Lanús) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (Draw).
  • Kalshi: Three separate binary markets (Boca Win, Lanús Win, Draw/Tie). Each resolves Yes if its outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit postponement or cancellation clause provided. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If [outcome] wins the Lanus vs Boca Juniors professional Argentina Primera Division soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.