TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the March 4, 2026 Argentina Primera División match between CA Lanús and CA Boca Juniors. Markets predict the outcome (Boca win, Lanús win, or draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket applies asymmetric cancellation logic (Boca/Lanús resolve No; Draw resolves Yes if canceled), while Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation clause, creating ambiguity in edge-case resolution.Hero Tip:
Verify with AFA and both platforms whether a canceled match with no makeup is treated as a non-event (all markets void or revert) or as a draw by default. Polymarket's current rules create a logical inconsistency: a canceled match cannot simultaneously be 'not a Boca win' AND 'a draw.' Request written clarification before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Boca Win, Lanús Win, Draw). Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves Boca and Lanús to No, but Draw to Yes. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (Boca/Lanús) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (Draw).Kalshi:
Three separate binary markets (Boca Win, Lanús Win, Draw/Tie). Each resolves Yes if its outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit postponement or cancellation clause provided. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: 'If [outcome] wins the Lanus vs Boca Juniors professional Argentina Primera Division soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.