TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München
Volume:
$3,646,032
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the Bundesliga match between BV Borussia 09 Dortmund and FC Bayern München scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets track whether Dortmund wins, Bayern wins, or the match ends in a draw, all measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Polymarket resolves canceled matches as "No" for win markets but "Yes" for the draw market, creating an asymmetric outcome. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation, leaving ambiguity in edge-case resolution.Hero Tip:
Traders should verify the official Bundesliga cancellation policy before the match date. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket will split resolution across three markets with conflicting outcomes, while Kalshi's three-way structure may require exchange discretion. Request clarification from both platforms if cancellation is announced.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Dortmund Win, Bayern Win, Draw). Resolves to "No" for both win markets if canceled with no make-up game, but resolves to "Yes" for the draw market. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No"' (win markets) vs. 'this market will resolve "Yes"' (draw market).
- Kalshi: Three-way outcome market (Dortmund Win / Bayern Win / Tie). No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implies standard sports betting convention where postponement keeps market open and cancellation may void or require rescheduling. Quote: 'If Tie wins the Dortmund vs Bayern Munich professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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