TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$222,594,306
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,033,877
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,328,926,524
576,847
Markets across
14,568
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,055
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga soccer match between BV Borussia 09 Dortmund and 1. FSV Mainz 05 scheduled for February 13, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical time windows (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties) and reference the same official Bundesliga source for match outcomes.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga records and match statistics (https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga)Core resolution logic:
- Match result is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only
- Extra time and penalty shootouts are explicitly excluded from resolution scope
- Three mutually exclusive outcomes: Dortmund win, Mainz win, or draw
- Polymarket draw market resolves Yes if match ends in draw, No otherwise
- Polymarket Dortmund win market resolves Yes if Dortmund wins, No otherwise
- Polymarket Mainz win market resolves Yes if Mainz wins, No otherwise
- Kalshi markets resolve Yes for whichever outcome occurs (Dortmund win, Mainz win, or Tie)
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Postponement: Both platforms keep markets open until the match is completed. No early resolution occurs.
- Match Cancellation (No Makeup): Polymarket resolves draw markets to Yes and win markets to No. Kalshi would follow official Bundesliga guidance; outcome-specific markets would not resolve to Yes unless that outcome was achieved.
- Extra Time or Penalties: Explicitly excluded. Resolution is based only on the 90-minute result plus stoppage time, regardless of any knockout-stage continuation.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the match concludes on February 13, 2026, based on the official final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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