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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Bulgaria vs Luxembourg?

Volume:
$965,645

Luxembourg

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 2:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luxembourg

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$203,274
N/A
N/A
$102,461
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Luxembourg

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$127,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

LUX

View
99%
70%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$15,828
$19,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

BUL

View
1%
41%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$148
$44,674
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bulgaria

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$284,920
N/A
N/A
$181,921
Settled
No
polymarket

Bulgaria

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
1%
31%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$88
$11,348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$141,238
N/A
N/A
$100,713
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg)

View
0%
30%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Bulgaria and Luxembourg, scheduled for September 26, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Luxembourg winning is 100.0%, as aggregated from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket. The resolution source for this market is https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/. Keep an eye on the official team lineups announced closer to September 26, 2026, as these will provide insight into each team’s strategy and potential for success in the match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence in cancellation handling and source preference for resolving the event.Hero tip: Monitor official UEFA sources closely for the match result and any potential cancellations. Polymarket provides more explicit guidance on how cancellations will be handled.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official statistics, with fallbacks to Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus. A canceled game resolves to "No" for win markets and "Yes" for the draw market.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation handling is provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Bulgaria and Luxembourg.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League soccer game scheduled for Sep 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for Bulgaria resolves the 'Bulgaria' market to Yes; a win for Luxembourg resolves the 'Luxembourg' market to Yes; a tie resolves the 'Tie' market to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Bulgaria and Luxembourg.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, whereas this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team rankings and statistics, this market can quickly adjust to incorporate new information or unexpected developments, potentially providing more dynamic pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi for the Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg match can arise from several factors. Different user bases on each platform may have varying levels of expertise or access to information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume also plays a role; Polymarket has seen a volume of $965,645, while Kalshi’s volume is lower. Market makers and arbitrageurs may also contribute to price differences as they attempt to profit from temporary imbalances. These dynamics create opportunities for traders on both platforms.