TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the performance of Buffalo and Cleveland exclusively during the final quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to different point-spread thresholds that either team must overcome in that specific quarter to determine the outcome.
These markets evaluate whether Cleveland or Buffalo secures a 4th-quarter victory by exceeding specific point differentials in the Buffalo vs Cleveland Pro Football game scheduled for August 22, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold—ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points—for either team to win the quarter by. All markets exclusively consider points scored during regulation 4th-quarter play; overtime points are excluded from calculation. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the named team wins the quarter by more than the specified margin. Thresholds are incremental, allowing participants to bet on varying levels of dominance in the quarter’s closing moments. The structure enables granular speculation on late-game momentum and strategic shifts, with outcomes determined solely by 4th-quarter performance independent of the full-game result.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through a logarithmic market scoring rule that rewards accurate forecasting. The current implied probability reflects collective expectations for the margin in the fourth quarter, with volume of $3,873 supporting the price discovery process. Traders buy contracts representing possible outcomes at odds that balance supply and demand.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official point differential from the game’s final statistics will determine which side of the spread is correct, closing all positions based on the confirmed result.
Injuries, weather updates, or key performance shifts in the game could move this market sharply before Aug 22, 2026. Star player status, coaching decisions, or even momentum swings in recent matchups may alter trader expectations. As the quarter progresses, real-time scoring and possession changes will also influence odds, reflecting new probabilities for the spread outcome.