TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 2:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Buffalo or Cleveland in the first quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Buffalo and Cleveland during the first quarter of play in their game scheduled for August 22, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold that must be surpassed for a 'Yes' resolution: Cleveland must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or Buffalo must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored in the first quarter count toward these thresholds. If the game is postponed or canceled without first-quarter play occurring, all markets will resolve as 'No.' The markets are independent, meaning each threshold represents a distinct outcome that can be evaluated separately.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction market odds adjust dynamically based on real-time trading activity, often showing sharper movements than sportsbook spreads. While sportsbooks incorporate broader public betting trends and set fixed odds, this market captures focused trader expectations for the 1st quarter spread. Traders may see different implied probabilities compared to sportsbook lines, influenced by $10,035 volume and trader positioning.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends solely on the actual point differential at the end of the first quarter, regardless of final game results or later momentum swings.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions affecting early gameplay, or strategic coaching decisions could all shift this market. Additionally, any significant performance trends observed in pre-game warmups or early in the match may cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment, especially given the short timeframe and focused nature of the opening quarter.