TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:31 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Buenos Aires 2, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Joaquin Aguilar and Juan Pablo Varillas in the Buenos Aires 2, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joaquin Aguilar' if Joaquin Aguilar advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Joaquin Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may suggest that the market perceives a different probability of a particular outcome than the sportsbook does. It’s important to compare both to form a well-rounded view of the potential result, but remember this market represents a distinct forecast.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous process where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure decreases the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market odds are constantly updated based on the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Aguilar vs Varillas match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The winner of the match will determine the winning share in this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market settles.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market leading up to Oct 2, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could cause traders to adjust their positions. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader tennis news, could also impact the market. Monitoring sports news and analyzing player performance will be key to understanding potential movements in this market.