TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$74,316,137

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,155,356,965

338,521

Markets across

33,297

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,228

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 01d:13h:11m

Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

97%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 20

Description

This event determines whether Brent crude oil prices exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment in time, reflecting potential market volatility or stability around that date.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil using the BRENTX6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price; if the closing price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by their delivery month, not expiration date. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, and the closing price represents the end of the minute preceding the timestamp. If data is unavailable for the specified time, the most recent published data determines the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro models and supply-demand projections, traders on Kalshi price in real-time reactions to news, geopolitics, and inventory reports. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent events, but the market tends to converge with consensus forecasts over longer periods.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks based on their expectations for Brent crude oil prices. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of all active orders, with chances displayed as implied probabilities. Liquidity and price discovery evolve as new information emerges, allowing participants to hedge or speculate on near-term movements in oil markets.

This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. On that date, the closing Brent crude oil price at 5:00 PM EDT will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds. The result is finalized when authoritative sources such as major news outlets or pricing agencies publish the official figure.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves. Key catalysts include OPEC+ production decisions, unexpected disruptions in major oil-producing regions, changes in global inventory levels, and shifts in demand due to economic growth or recession signals. Geopolitical tensions, weather events affecting transport routes, and energy policy announcements from major economies also frequently influence trader sentiment and price action in oil markets.