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183,662

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5

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56%

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Brazil GDP Growth in Q4 2025?
Economics
kalshi
polymarket

Brazil GDP Growth in Q4 2025?

Volume:
$17,175
PredictionHero
Above 1.5% 100%
kalshi
1.6%–1.9% 100%
polymarket
Above 0.5% 100%
kalshi
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026020406080100

Closed: Mar 3, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks Brazil's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q4 2025, as officially reported by Brazil's Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are structured to resolve based on the initial IBGE release scheduled for March 3, 2026, with resolution precision limited to one decimal place (e.g., 2.3%).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses overlapping threshold-based YES conditions without explicit range partitioning, while Polymarket uses mutually exclusive outcome buckets. The two frameworks resolve the same underlying metric (Brazil Q4 2025 YoY GDP growth) but apply incompatible logical structures.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate prediction markets with different resolution architectures. Kalshi's five thresholds appear to be independent binary events (each YES if growth exceeds that threshold), while Polymarket's eight ranges partition the entire outcome space into non-overlapping buckets. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible without clarification from each platform on whether their markets are linked or independent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Five independent threshold-based markets: all resolve YES if Brazilian Q4 2025 YoY GDP exceeds their respective thresholds (0.5%, 1.5%, 2.5%, 3.5%, 4.5%). No explicit NO condition or range specification provided. This creates logical ambiguity: a 2.2% outcome would trigger YES on all five markets simultaneously.
  • Polymarket: Eight mutually exclusive range-based markets partitioning the full outcome space: <0.4%, 0.4%-0.7%, 0.8%-1.1%, 1.2%-1.5%, 1.6%-1.9%, 2.0%-2.3%, >=2.4%, plus one explicit range 2.0%-2.3%. Exactly one market resolves YES; all others resolve NO. Resolution uses IBGE initial release data to one decimal place precision, scheduled March 3, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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