TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 5:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market checks whether Bragantino or Bahia will secure a victory with a goal difference surpassing a set minimum. The result is determined purely by the margin of victory during regular play time.
Markets resolve based on whether Bragantino or Bahia wins by a margin exceeding specified thresholds in the Bragantino vs Bahia professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game on Sep 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Thresholds include Bragantino winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and Bahia winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the winning margin meets or exceeds the threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks are property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the speculative nature of trader bets and the inclusion of exotic or nuanced outcomes. While sportsbooks set fixed spreads and odds based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on what they believe the final score difference will be, which can lead to sharper or more volatile pricing depending on recent team performance and public sentiment.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectation of participants for the spread result. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to incentivize accurate forecasting, and the probability percentages shown are derived from the ratio of yes to no contracts traded at any given moment.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is determined by the official match result and score difference as recorded by recognized sports authorities, and the market settles accordingly based on that verified data.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, recent form of both teams, and weather conditions on the day of the match could all shift this market. High-profile performances, disciplinary actions, or even shifts in betting sentiment from large traders can cause rapid movements in the odds as the game draws nearer.