TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 3:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the performance of a specific golfer during the first round of a golf tournament, examining how he scores on each individual hole. The outcomes depend on whether the golfer achieves certain scoring thresholds relative to par on each hole.
The event consists of multiple markets, each corresponding to a specific hole in Round 1 of the 2026 Rocket Classic. Each market has three possible outcomes: birdie or better (a score below par), even par (exactly par), or bogey or worse (a score above par). For any given hole, if Brad Dalke records a score that matches the condition specified in the market (birdie or better, even par, or bogey or worse), that market resolves to 'Yes.' If his score does not meet the condition, the market resolves to 'No.' Scores are always measured relative to par, with lower (more negative) numbers representing better performance. The structure ensures that for each hole, exactly one of the three outcome markets will resolve to 'Yes,' while the other two resolve to 'No,' based solely on Dalke's actual score for that hole.
On Kalshi, the odds in this market reflect trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may incorporate expert analysis and historical data, prediction markets price outcomes based on aggregated bets, which can create different implied probabilities. The spread between the two can vary depending on trading volume and recent performance trends. For participants, this difference offers an alternative perspective on likely outcomes, potentially revealing mispricings or shifts in public opinion that sportsbooks may not immediately adjust for.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price through their bets, with the current chance reflecting the aggregated expectations of all participants. The market’s price fluctuates based on new information, such as recent performance or weather conditions. Higher trading volume can lead to more stable prices, while limited activity may cause larger swings. This dynamic pricing allows participants to react quickly to new data as it emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final scores for each hole will be compared against the market's defined outcomes, and the market will close based on official tournament results and widely accepted scorecards.