TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 5:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Bournemouth and Lincoln, focusing specifically on the margin of victory during regulation time. It examines different thresholds for wins by either team, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. The result hinges solely on the goal difference within the standard 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Bournemouth and Lincoln in their EFL Cup match scheduled for September 8, 2026, after 90 minutes of play including stoppage time but excluding any extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds define resolution: Bournemouth winning by more than 2.5 goals, Bournemouth winning by more than 1.5 goals, Lincoln winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Lincoln winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any match conclusion meeting one of these conditions triggers a 'Yes' resolution for the corresponding market condition. The rules explicitly clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the different incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to profit by setting lines that attract balanced betting, while prediction market traders are incentivized to express their genuine beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a 'wisdom of the crowd' that is more accurate than sportsbook lines, particularly as more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful benchmark when evaluating this market and forming your own opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the regulation time spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The current price indicates the market’s collective expectation for the final score differential between Bournemouth and Lincoln.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The regulation time spread will be determined based on the official final score of the Bournemouth versus Lincoln match, as reported by official sources. The market will settle to 100 if the spread matches the contract price, and proportionally less if the actual spread differs. The final result will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 9, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Bournemouth or Lincoln would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or pre-match analysis from respected football commentators could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.