TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 8, 6:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in a Brazilian Serie C soccer match between Botafogo and Santa Cruz FC PE. Outcomes are determined by whether the winning team achieves specific goal-differential thresholds. The event resolves based solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome categories based on the goal differential of the Botafogo versus Santa Cruz FC PE match scheduled for August 8, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome resolves if Botafogo wins by more than 2.5 goals, Botafogo wins by more than 1.5 goals, Santa Cruz FC PE wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Santa Cruz FC PE wins by more than 2.5 goals, all evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and excluding extra time or penalties. Each rule defines a specific threshold for victory margins, with no overlap in resolution criteria. The governing league’s official result determines the outcome, and Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of related intellectual property.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the speculative nature of trader-driven pricing. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytical models and historical data, prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants, which can shift rapidly with new information or sentiment. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on trader confidence and recent team performance.
This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be compared to the spread set for the match, and the market will settle based on whether Botafogo or Santa Cruz met the expected margin of victory. No additional interpretation beyond the publicly recorded result is needed.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or recent form for either team could shift trader sentiment and move this market. Weather conditions on the day of the match, disciplinary actions such as suspensions, and even early goal scoring in the live match can cause rapid price adjustments. Any news that affects the perceived likelihood of a spread cover will influence trader behavior leading up to Aug 9, 2026.