TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 20, 1:55 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the offensive performance of Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and outfielder Julio Rodríguez during their June 19, 2026 game against the Boston Red Sox. Total bases are earned through hits, with singles worth one base, doubles worth two, triples worth three, and home runs worth four.
Settlement is based on total bases accumulated by each player during the game. For Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, resolution occurs only if the player starts the game and records at least one plate appearance; pinch-hit appearances do not count. If a player is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, or if they start but do not record a plate appearance, the market resolves to fair market price. Once a player starts and achieves at least one plate appearance, the market settles based on the actual total bases recorded, regardless of the specific threshold being tested.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different pricing mechanisms and trader bases. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Sportsbook odds may emphasize sharp money and closing line value, whereas this market reflects the collective forecast of all active traders. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs or where one venue may be undervaluing or overvaluing the outcome relative to the other.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different total bases outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the supply and demand balance at any given moment, with active traders continuously adjusting their positions based on new information and game developments. As the Boston-Seattle matchup approaches and unfolds, the odds shift to reflect updated expectations about the final total bases count.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once the Boston-Seattle game concludes and the total bases are finalized. The outcome is confirmed when the combined bases from both teams can be verified against credible public sources, such as official league statistics or major sports data providers. Until that point, the market remains open for trading as new information emerges during the game.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Lineup announcements, injuries to key players, or weather conditions at game time may alter expectations about offensive output and total bases. Early game performance—such as aggressive hitting, extra-base hits, or pitching dominance—will drive real-time repricing as traders update their forecasts. Trade deadline moves, recent team form, and head-to-head matchup history can also influence how traders position themselves ahead of kickoff and throughout the contest.