TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 12:39 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Boston will win by more than 1.5 runs against Los Angeles A in their matchup. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Boston wins by over 1.5 runs—stands at 93.0%. The market resolves based on the final margin of victory in the professional baseball game scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 9:30 PM EDT. Watch the game result on July 5, 2026 to see if Los Angeles A can keep the margin to 3.5 runs or fewer, which would resolve the market to No.
Resolution is determined by the final score differential in the Boston vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 9:30 PM EDT. Los Angeles A outcomes resolve to Yes if that team wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). Boston outcomes resolve to Yes if that team wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). Each outcome is mutually exclusive—only one team can win by a given margin. Resolution uses the official final game score.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show odds that differ from major sportsbooks, revealing where the crowd of prediction market participants sees value differently. Comparing the two can highlight gaps in public perception or specialized knowledge that traders believe the spread line has mispriced.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective assessment of that outcome's probability, ranging from near-zero to near-100. As new trades execute, prices adjust in real time. Liquidity and trading volume influence how tightly bid-ask spreads stay, affecting the ease of entering or exiting positions at favorable rates.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the Boston versus Los Angeles game concludes and the final spread result is verified against credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether Boston covers the specified spread or fails to do so. Resolution occurs after official game data is confirmed and the spread differential is calculated. Traders holding positions will see their contracts settle based on the verified final result.
Key injury announcements, roster changes, or coaching decisions for either team can shift odds significantly. Recent team performance, head-to-head matchup history, and public betting trends often influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and back-to-back game fatigue may also impact the spread outlook. Major sports news outlets and team social media frequently break developments that prompt rapid repricing. As game day nears, late-breaking information and sharp money typically drive the most volatile price movements in this market.