TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 12:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the Boston vs Los Angeles Angels game on July 4, 2026. Bettors predict whether one team will win by specific run differentials.
This event resolves based on the final run differential in the Boston vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT. Los Angeles A outcomes resolve Yes if the team wins by more than 3.5 runs (over 3.5), more than 2.5 runs (over 2.5), or more than 1.5 runs (over 1.5). Boston outcomes resolve Yes if the team wins by more than 1.5 runs (over 1.5), more than 2.5 runs (over 2.5), or more than 3.5 runs (over 3.5). The margin is calculated as the absolute difference between final scores, with the winning team's margin determining which outcomes resolve affirmatively.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show different implied probabilities than major sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or as the event date approaches. Comparing the two can reveal where market consensus differs from professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts based on their beliefs about the spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices move continuously as new orders flow in, reflecting real-time shifts in trader conviction. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, and all trades settle according to Kalshi's standard rules once the event concludes and the outcome is verified.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the game concludes and the final score is confirmed. The outcome is determined by the actual point spread between Boston and Los Angeles, verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts aligned with the final result receive their payout, while those on the incorrect side forfeit their stake. Resolution typically occurs within hours of game completion.
Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, weather conditions, and recent team performance trends. Betting action from sharp traders or sudden shifts in public sentiment can also drive price movement. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions often triggers rapid repricing. As the game date approaches, this market typically becomes more volatile as traders incorporate late-breaking information and adjust positions ahead of tipoff.