TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Boston and Los Angeles A is scheduled for July 3, 2026. Bettors predict the combined run total from both teams during the first 5 innings of play.
Resolution is based on the combined run total scored by Boston and Los Angeles A during the first 5 innings of their professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT. Each outcome corresponds to a specific run threshold, with resolution to Yes if the combined total exceeds that threshold. Thresholds range from 0.5 runs through 6.5 runs in 1-run increments. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.
Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader positioning rather than fixed oddsmaker spreads. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to balance liability, while prediction markets aggregate live belief across many participants. This market may offer sharper or earlier signals on first-inning scoring trends, especially as new information emerges closer to game time. Comparing the two can reveal where professional and crowd sentiment align or diverge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different run-total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective confidence of active traders; higher prices indicate stronger belief in that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces—weather, lineup changes, or injury updates—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This continuous repricing ensures the market stays responsive to shifting conditions.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the Boston versus Los Angeles game concludes and the first five innings are complete. The outcome is determined by the combined total runs scored by both teams during those five innings, verified against credible public sources. Once the result is confirmed and the resolution window closes, traders' positions settle based on whether the actual total matched their prediction. Early resolution may occur if the game is called or suspended before five innings are played.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before game time and during the first five innings. Lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and weather updates often trigger repricing as traders reassess scoring likelihood. Injury reports or last-minute roster changes can significantly impact run expectations. Once play begins, early scoring, pitcher performance, and base-running decisions will drive live trading. Momentum swings—such as an unexpected home run or defensive gem—typically accelerate price movement as traders react to unfolding action.