TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Boston and Los Angeles A is scheduled for July 3, 2026. Bettors predict the winner after the first 3 innings are completed, including the possibility of a tie at that point.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 3 innings of the Boston vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT. If Boston leads after 3 innings, the Boston outcome resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles A leads after 3 innings, the Los Angeles A outcome resolves to Yes. If the score is tied after 3 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market aggregates trader conviction about the first three innings specifically, which may differ from traditional sportsbook pricing that focuses on full-game outcomes. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to conventional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last matched order—and moves as new traders enter or exit positions. Prices range from near zero to near 100, where higher prices indicate greater perceived likelihood. Real-time liquidity and order flow determine how quickly prices adjust to new information about the matchup.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the first three innings of the Boston versus Los Angeles game are complete and the outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The result will reflect which team is ahead on the scoreboard after exactly three innings of play. Resolution occurs automatically once the event concludes and the official result is confirmed, at which point winning positions are paid out and losing positions expire worthless.
Key catalysts include roster updates, injury announcements, recent team performance trends, and weather conditions on game day. Starting pitcher matchups and bullpen availability can significantly influence early-inning scoring potential. Breaking news about player availability or lineup changes often triggers sharp price movement as traders reassess probabilities. Additionally, as game time approaches and teams finalize their strategies, market prices typically tighten and reflect more confident consensus. Real-time in-game developments during the first three innings will drive final adjustments before settlement.