TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

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2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Boston vs Chicago WS: Spread
kalshi
predict

What is the run differential in Boston vs Chicago on July 9, 2026?

Volume:
$357,515

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox

 - Predict

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:10 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$19,254
$10,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$208,376
N/A
N/A
$87,425
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago WS wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,660
N/A
N/A
$54,963
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,023
N/A
N/A
$14,441
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston wins by over 3.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,604
N/A
N/A
$8,411
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago WS wins by over 3.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,124
N/A
N/A
$5,519
Settled
No
kalshi

Chicago WS wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,372
N/A
N/A
$5,701
Settled
No
kalshi

Red Sox wins by over 4.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,280
N/A
N/A
$1,280
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event group covers a single MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 2:10 PM EDT. The Predict platform offers a binary moneyline market (Red Sox win vs. White Sox win), while Kalshi offers spread-based markets covering multiple run-differential thresholds (±1.5, ±2.5, ±3.5 runs). These represent fundamentally different market structures and settlement criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Predict and Kalshi offer structurally different market types for the same underlying game. Predict is a binary moneyline (winner only); Kalshi offers six independent spread-based markets (run differential thresholds). These are distinct SKUs, not variants of the same contract.Hero tip: Treat these as separate trading instruments. A Predict position on Boston does not hedge a Kalshi position on Chicago +1.5 runs. Confirm your market choice aligns with your directional and magnitude thesis before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Binary moneyline market resolving to either Boston Red Sox or Chicago White Sox based on game winner. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation or tie resolves 50-50. Primary source: official MLB final statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed.
  • Kalshi: Six independent spread markets: Chicago wins by >3.5, >2.5, >1.5 runs (three markets) and Boston wins by >1.5, >2.5, >3.5 runs (three markets). Each resolves Yes/No based on final run differential only. No explicit tie/cancellation language provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final run differential in the Boston vs Chicago White Sox game originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 2:10 PM EDT. Chicago White Sox outcomes resolve Yes if Chicago wins by more than the specified margin (more than 3.5 runs, more than 2.5 runs, or more than 1.5 runs). Boston outcomes resolve Yes if Boston wins by more than the specified margin (more than 1.5 runs, more than 2.5 runs, or more than 3.5 runs). The official final score determines which team wins and by how many runs.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 9 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the Boston vs Chicago World Series spread across Kalshi and Predict, letting you monitor real-time consensus on the margin of victory. Traders on both platforms are pricing the likely run differential between the Red Sox and White Sox in their matchup. By tracking volume of $357,515 and 24-hour activity of $283,691, you can gauge liquidity and conviction shifts. The cross-platform view reveals how different market mechanisms and trader bases converge or diverge on the same underlying event, giving you a fuller picture of where smart money stands on this World Series outcome.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Predict operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Instead of a bookmaker adjusting lines for margin, traders here buy and sell shares directly, with prices reflecting aggregate belief about the outcome. This often produces tighter, more efficient pricing because traders have real money at stake and can arbitrage across platforms. Sportsbooks, by contrast, build in juice and manage liability. For this market, comparing prediction prices to major sportsbook spreads can reveal whether one side is undervalued—a key edge for informed bettors.

Kalshi and Predict use different contract designs and trader populations, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi may frame the outcome as a binary on the Red Sox versus the White Sox, while Predict structures it as a yes/no on a specific run margin (e.g., Chicago wins by over 2.5 runs). Liquidity, fee structures, and regulatory constraints also vary between platforms. These differences mean arbitrage opportunities can exist; a trader spotting a gap can profit by buying low on one platform and selling high on the other, gradually pushing prices toward equilibrium.