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Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings between Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox?

Volume:
$66,613

Boston wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Boston wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 9:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Boston wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59,601
N/A
N/A
$50,758
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago WS wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,991
N/A
N/A
$2,224
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,007
N/A
N/A
$2,902
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox scheduled for July 7-8, 2026. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead, behind, or tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Boston win, Chicago win, tie) are marked to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Additionally, the platforms disagree on the game date (July 7 vs July 8, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is internally contradictory and will create settlement disputes. Polymarket's three separate binary markets provide clear, mutually exclusive outcomes. Confirm the actual game date with MLB.com before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure resolves all three outcomes to Yes: 'If Boston wins...then Yes. If Chicago wins...then Yes. If tie...then Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility. Game date listed as July 7, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Boston Red Sox (Yes/No), Chicago White Sox (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No). Only one can resolve Yes. Game date listed as July 8, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET. Includes explicit contingency rules for postponements (market stays open until 5th inning completed) and full cancellations (50-50 split).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 8 at 7:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the score at the end of the fifth inning of the Boston vs Chicago White Sox professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT. If Boston has more runs, the Boston outcome resolves to Yes. If Chicago White Sox has more runs, the Chicago White Sox outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams have equal runs, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines, often reflecting sharper, more dynamic pricing. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit; prediction markets let traders continuously adjust prices based on new information. For early-inning props like this one, prediction markets can react faster to lineup changes, weather, or injury news because prices update in real time. However, sportsbook odds may offer tighter spreads and higher liquidity on some events. Comparing both venues reveals whether the market consensus differs from traditional bookmaker pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, risk tolerances, and information sets. Kalshi and Polymarket use distinct market-making mechanisms and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Regulatory frameworks and contract specifications also differ slightly between venues, affecting how traders interpret the same outcome. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform reprices faster than the other after breaking news. These differences typically narrow as resolution approaches, but savvy traders monitor both sites to identify mispricings and capitalize on cross-platform spreads.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and injury updates can significantly shift odds before first pitch. Weather conditions at the ballpark—wind direction, temperature, humidity—affect early-inning scoring patterns and may trigger repricing. Pregame betting action on related markets, such as total runs or moneyline odds, often signals sharp money and influences this market. Breaking news about team roster moves or manager decisions can cause rapid position adjustments. As game time nears, traders may also react to real-time developments like bullpen availability or recent team performance trends.