TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy
polymarket
kalshi

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy

Volume:
$321,815

Bosnia & Herzegovina

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 4:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bosnia & Herzegovina

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$139,794
N/A
N/A
$59,287
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Italy

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$170,112
N/A
N/A
$69,219
Settled
No
polymarket

Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5)

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 167.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Italy. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 99.5%. Data is drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on the official game result at fiba.basketball. Watch for the game scheduled for August 28, 2026, as this will determine the market's final resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental market structure mismatch between team-name resolution (Polymarket) and binary win indicator (Kalshi)Hero tip: Do not hedge positions across these platforms as they resolve differently even with same game outcome. Treat as separate markets with distinct payoff structures

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Team-name resolution market: "If the Bosnia and Herzegovina win, the market will resolve to 'Bosnia and Herzegovina'. If the Italy win, the market will resolve to 'Italy'. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50."
  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market: "If Bosnia & Herzegovina wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Italy wins... then the market resolves to Yes" - same outcome triggers identical resolution
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for August 28 at 6:00AM ET: If the Bosnia and Herzegovina win, the market will resolve to "Bosnia and Herzegovina". If the Italy win, the market will resolve to "Italy". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified team wins the Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina men’s professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for August 28, 2026, at 2:00 PM EDT. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the scheduled time, markets remain active and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not commence within 48 hours of the original time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not associated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bosnia vs. Italy football match aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction markets, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of different outcomes. It displays current probabilities, volume of $321,815 and recent 24-hour volume of $320,619, letting you see consensus views and divergences as the match approaches. This centralized view helps users monitor sentiment shifts and compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users evaluate the contest.

Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi often arise from variations in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more international traders who view the match through a different lens, while the other could have a more regional focus. These dynamics can lead to distinct probability assessments, especially when trading volumes are still building ahead of the event.

Key signals that could shift probabilities in this market include major injuries to star players, changes in coaching strategy, weather forecasts affecting match conditions, and shifting rankings or recent form of both teams. As these developments unfold, traders will react, potentially creating noticeable swings in implied chances on both Polymarket and Kalshi before the match concludes.