TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 - More Markets
Volume:
$204,214
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the Bundesliga match between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli 1910 scheduled for March 13, 2026. Markets include spread bets (goal-margin outcomes), over/under total goals, both teams to score, and various threshold-based win conditions across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Threshold semantics differ between platforms on spread markets. Kalshi uses strict inequality (more than X) while Polymarket uses inclusive language (X or more), though both resolve identically for whole-number goal margins (2, 3, etc.). The divergence is logical framing rather than practical outcome.Hero Tip:
Both platforms will resolve identically for actual match outcomes (2-goal margin = YES on both, 3-goal margin = YES on both). The divergence is a language/logic artifact, not a settlement risk. However, document the threshold interpretation with your compliance team to avoid disputes if edge-case scenarios arise (e.g., if a goal is disputed or VAR review occurs).Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Spread markets use strict inequality: YES if either team wins by MORE THAN 1.5 goals (i.e., 2+ margin) or MORE THAN 2.5 goals (i.e., 3+ margin). Quote: 'If St. Pauli wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Spread markets use inclusive threshold: M'gladbach wins if they win by 2 or more goals; St. Pauli wins if they win by 2 or more goals; M'gladbach wins if they win by 3 or more goals; St. Pauli wins if they win by 3 or more goals. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Borussia Mönchengladbach if Borussia Mönchengladbach win the game by 2 or more goals.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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