TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Union Berlin
Volume:
$704,236
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the Bundesliga match between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Union Berlin scheduled for February 28, 2026. The markets collectively allow traders to bet on all three possible outcomes (M'gladbach win, Union Berlin win, or draw) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains an asymmetric cancellation clause (resolves Yes on full cancellation) that differs from the standard No-resolution behavior on Kalshi and Polymarket's win markets. This creates a settlement arbitrage risk if the match is canceled.Hero Tip:
Monitor official Bundesliga sources for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket's draw market will pay out Yes while other markets void or resolve No. Consider this tail risk when sizing positions across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Kalshi presents three separate Yes/No markets covering all outcomes (M'gladbach win, Union Berlin win, tie). Resolution criteria state each outcome resolves Yes if it occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause is provided. Key Quote: 'If M´gladbach wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (same structure for all three outcomes).
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers three separate markets: M'gladbach win (Yes/No), draw (Yes/No), and Union Berlin win (Yes/No). The draw market uniquely includes a cancellation clause: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' The win markets resolve No on cancellation. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw market only).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.