TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?

Volume:
$3,787,596

Bayern Munich

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 22, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 6:26 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bayern Munich

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,119,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Reg Time: Bayern Munich

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$197,442
N/A
N/A
$101,872
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Borussia Dortmund

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reg Time: Dortmund

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,507
N/A
N/A
$90,483
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich)

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119,477
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reg Time: Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,365
N/A
N/A
$16,077
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Bayern Munich will win the match against Borussia Dortmund on August 22, 2026. The current aggregated consensus probability for Bayern Munich winning stands at 100.0%, combining data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolutions sourced from the official Bundesliga website. The outcome will be determined by the match result on the scheduled date, including regular play and stoppage time, so keep an eye on the event as it approaches to see the final result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market scope divergence - Kalshi uses a single market that resolves Yes for any outcome while Polymarket uses three separate binary marketsHero tip: Avoid arbitrage strategies between these platforms as Kalshi's market pays out for any outcome while Polymarket requires outcome-specific bets. Focus trading on Polymarket for precise outcome bets or Kalshi for 'any outcome' exposure

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Will Borussia Dortmund win? Will the match end in a draw? Will Bayern Munich win? Each resolves independently based on exact match result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time
  • Kalshi: Single market that resolves to Yes if Dortmund wins OR Bayern wins OR the match ends in a draw (any outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time). Does not distinguish between win/draw scenarios
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming German Super Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026 between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the result of the Dortmund vs Bayern Munich professional Germany Super Cup soccer game scheduled for August 22, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the Dortmund market occurs if Dortmund wins within regulation time. Similarly, a 'Yes' for Bayern Munich occurs if they secure a victory within the same timeframe. If the game concludes in a tie after regulation time, the Tie market resolves to 'Yes.' If the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets strictly adhere to regulation time results, with no consideration given to outcomes determined in extra time or penalty shootouts.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Dortmund vs. Bayern matchup market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing how traders on different platforms price this contest. It displays total volume of $3,787,596 and 24-hour volume of $3,767,133, alongside the current consensus view drawn from each book. This gives you a live snapshot of market sentiment and liquidity for the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market design and user base differences drive pricing gaps. Polymarket operates with a continuous order book that rewards early positions, while Kalshi may use discrete trading intervals or different fee structures. These mechanics influence how traders place bets and what probabilities they’re willing to accept. Additionally, each platform attracts distinct participant demographics — from arbitrage-focused traders on Polymarket to longer-term enthusiasts on Kalshi — which can skew prices independently. As new data emerges, such as player availability or recent form, the divergence may shrink or expand based on how each community interprets and reacts to the information.