TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 11,558,845
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 11,558,845 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Jul 11, 2:42 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether the song Born Sinner achieves streaming performance above a specific threshold during the July 3-9 tracking week. Streaming data is compiled from global platforms and published within approximately 48 hours after the tracking period ends.
Kalshi
If Born Sinner has above 11,558,845 Worldwide Streams during the July 03 - July 09, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money stakes and continuous price discovery rather than static opinions. Traders in this market incorporate entertainment industry reporting, streaming platform announcements, and release schedules to price outcomes dynamically. When analysts publish forecasts about upcoming releases, market participants may agree or disagree, causing odds to shift. This market aggregates distributed knowledge from many traders, sometimes revealing signals that formal predictions miss.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate—a share trading at 65 cents implies roughly a 65% chance of that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces or trading interest shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at any point before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the streaming release occurs within the specified window. Once the deadline passes and the outcome is clear from reliable entertainment news sources or official platform announcements, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market. Official announcements from the streaming platform or the artist would have immediate impact. Industry reports about release delays or confirmations, social media hints, or changes to the entertainment calendar could trigger trading activity. Chart performance, competing releases, or platform scheduling decisions may also influence trader sentiment. Any credible news about the timing or status of the release would likely cause prices to adjust as participants reassess their positions.
