TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 9:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Bonaire and Saint Kitts & Nevis in the Concacaf Nations League. The focus is on the margin of victory for either team within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are placed on whether a team will win by a specific number of goals or more.
The event evaluates four distinct winning margin scenarios for the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts & Nevis professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 25, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with extra time and penalty outcomes excluded. If Bonaire wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. A narrower Bonaire victory—by more than 1.5 but not exceeding 2.5 goals—triggers the second market’s Yes outcome. Conversely, if Saint Kitts & Nevis secures a win by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves positively. The final market requires Saint Kitts & Nevis to win by a margin exceeding 2.5 goals for a Yes resolution. Each rule operates independently, and no market resolves if the match ends in a draw or if the winning margin falls outside the specified thresholds. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It's important to consider both sources when forming your own opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific result in the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts & Nevis match, providing a dynamic view of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts & Nevis match, as determined by official match results. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The platform will verify the results against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift expectations. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed traders taking positions, potentially signaling new information or a change in outlook regarding the Bonaire vs Saint Kitts & Nevis match.