TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC
Volume:
$983,177
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Thursday, April 9, 2026 between Bologna FC 1909 and Aston Villa FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket settles on three binary outcomes (draw, Bologna win, Aston Villa win) covering all possible 90-minute match results, while Kalshi settles on goal-margin thresholds (wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals) that exclude draws and narrow 1-goal margins, creating fundamentally different settlement scopes.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Polymarket, your YES/NO outcome maps directly to a single match result (draw, Bologna win, or Aston Villa win). On Kalshi, your YES outcome requires a decisive margin of at least 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals—a draw or 1-goal win resolves NO on all four Kalshi markets. Arbitrage risk exists if you expect a close match or draw.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets covering all possible 90-minute outcomes—draw, Bologna win, or Aston Villa win. Each market resolves YES for exactly one outcome and NO for all others. Key quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (draw market); 'If Bologna FC 1909 wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Bologna win market).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four markets all resolving YES only if either team wins by a margin exceeding a threshold (1.5 or 2.5 goals). Draws and narrow wins (1-goal margins) resolve NO on all four markets. Key quote: 'If Bologna wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Aston Villa wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes'—no market covers draws or sub-threshold margins.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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