Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi use identical resolution logic: the market resolves based on the official match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 25, 2026, with all three possible outcomes (Bologna win, Roma win, draw) explicitly covered and mutually exclusive.
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from Lega Serie A (Italian Serie A governing body) or credible consensus reporting if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
Market resolves YES if Bologna FC 1909 wins the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Market resolves YES if AS Roma wins the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Market resolves YES if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Exactly ONE of the three outcomes will occur and resolve to YES; the other two resolve to NO.
Resolution is based on the match result only, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, both platforms keep the market open until the game is completed and played on a future date. Resolution then occurs based on the actual match result.
Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, Polymarket markets for Bologna win and Roma win resolve to NO, while the draw market resolves to YES. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation but implies all outcomes resolve YES if the event occurs.
Resolution Source Fallback: If Lega Serie A does not publish official statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting consensus from established sports news sources may be used as the resolution source.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by Lega Serie A within 2 hours of match conclusion, or upon consensus of credible reporting if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.