TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the March 12, 2026 Europa League match between Bologna FC 1909 and AS Roma. Three prediction markets track the outcome: whether Roma wins, whether Bologna wins, and whether the match ends in a draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation outcome divergence between platforms. Kalshi resolves all outcomes to Yes; Polymarket resolves cancellation to Yes for draw markets but No for win markets.Hero Tip:
In a full cancellation scenario with no rescheduled match, Kalshi's Tie market and Polymarket's Draw market both resolve Yes, but Polymarket's Roma/Bologna win markets resolve No while Kalshi's equivalent markets resolve Yes. Arbitrage risk exists if cancellation occurs. For normal match completion, all platforms align on standard 90+stoppage time resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
All three markets (Roma Win, Bologna Win, Tie) resolve to Yes for any outcome including cancellation. Logic treats all possible game states identically. Key Quote: 'If Roma wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Bologna wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Draw market resolves Yes on cancellation; Roma and Bologna win markets resolve No on cancellation. Differentiates outcome by market type. Key Quote (Draw): 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' Key Quote (Win markets): 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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