TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 7:08 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Boise State and Oregon. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that half to determine the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half of the Boise St. vs Oregon college football game scheduled for Sep 5, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. For Oregon-related markets, resolution occurs if Oregon's second-half point differential exceeds the specified threshold; for Boise State-related markets, resolution requires Boise State's second-half point differential to exceed the threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point margin conditions outlined in individual markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the game. It’s important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived from different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular spread, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and converge towards a collective prediction of the final result. The current price indicates what traders believe is the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Boise State vs Oregon game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The verified result will be sourced from official game statistics and reporting, ensuring an objective determination of the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the event has concluded and the results are verified.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Boise State or Oregon teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also shift the market. Unexpected news about team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate new information is being incorporated into the price.