TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
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$126,324,530
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Boise State and Oregon. Outcomes depend on which team leads by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter, reflecting early-game performance dynamics.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of play in the Boise St. vs Oregon college football game scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. If Oregon wins the first quarter by more than the specified point margin—ranging from 2.5 to 23.5 points—the corresponding 'Yes' outcome resolves. Conversely, if Boise St. wins the first quarter by more than the specified margin—2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points—the respective 'Yes' outcome also resolves. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official first-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing or outcome beyond the first quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can give you a broader perspective on the potential outcome and identify where there might be value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the first quarter spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'yes' outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Higher demand for the 'yes' side will drive the price up, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the actual first quarter spread of the Boise State vs Oregon game will be used to determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome prevails. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent result. Traders will then be paid out or required to pay based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Boise State or Oregon would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Public perception shifts based on expert analysis or breaking news stories could also drive trading activity. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and influence the price of this market.