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BMW International Open End of Round 1 Leader
kalshi

Who will lead after Round 1 of the BMW International Open?

Volume:
$83,941

Jayden Trey Schaper

 - Kalshi

Jayden Trey Schaper - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 2:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jayden Trey Schaper

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
$236
Settled
No
kalshi

Hennie Du Plessis

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
$128
Settled
No
kalshi

Joaquin Niemann

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,211
N/A
N/A
$12,594
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Reed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,840
N/A
N/A
$8,129
Settled
No
kalshi

Abraham Ancer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,112
N/A
N/A
$8,111
Settled
No
kalshi

Calum Hill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,367
N/A
N/A
$7,367
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Garcia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,358
N/A
N/A
$7,358
Settled
No
kalshi

Brad Dalke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,847
N/A
N/A
$6,743
Settled
No
kalshi

Jose Luis Ballester

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,691
N/A
N/A
$6,691
Settled
No
kalshi

Matti Schmid

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,202
N/A
N/A
$5,202
Settled
No
kalshi

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,439
N/A
N/A
$4,439
Settled
No
kalshi

Guido Migliozzi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,040
N/A
N/A
$3,040
Settled
No
kalshi

Marco Penge

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,151
N/A
N/A
$1,151
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeff Winther

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
$1,030
Settled
No
kalshi

Marcus Armitage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$823
N/A
N/A
$823
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$802
N/A
N/A
$802
Settled
No
kalshi

Jorge Campillo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$801
N/A
N/A
$801
Settled
No
kalshi

Kota Kaneko

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$779
N/A
N/A
$779
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Ortiz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$727
N/A
N/A
$727
Settled
No
kalshi

Frederic Lacroix

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$720
N/A
N/A
$720
Settled
No
kalshi

Angel Ayora Fanegas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$692
N/A
N/A
$692
Settled
No
kalshi

Victor Perez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
$645
Settled
No
kalshi

Byeong Hun An

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$570
Settled
No
kalshi

Bernd Wiesberger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$409
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

Nacho Elvira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 162

Description

This event determines which golfer will hold the best score after the first round of the 2026 BMW International Open. The leader is the player with the lowest total score at the end of Round 1. If multiple golfers are tied for the best score, all tied players are considered leaders.

Kalshi

The 2026 BMW International Open Round 1 leader market resolves based on which golfer has the lowest score after the completion of Round 1. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific golfer. If a golfer achieves the best score outright, their market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. If multiple golfers tie for the lead, all tied golfers' markets resolve to Yes with adjusted payouts: Yes positions pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N equals the number of tied participants, and No positions pay 1 minus the Yes payout. This ensures fair distribution of winnings among all tied leaders while accounting for the reduced probability of any single player being the sole leader.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the BMW International Open Round 1 leader market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movement for this prediction market. The interface shows which golfer is favored to hold the lead after the first round concludes, updated as new information and betting activity emerge. You can monitor the current odds for each contender, review 24-hour volume trends, and track how sentiment shifts throughout the tournament's opening day. This live data helps traders assess consensus expectations about who will emerge as the round's frontrunner.

Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate beliefs from traders who have direct financial exposure to accuracy. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue processes new information faster. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strongest and where sharp traders see value relative to conventional betting markets.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for each golfer's contract. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome contract reflects the collective belief about that player's likelihood of leading after Round 1, ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents per share. As new tournament data, weather updates, or player performance details emerge, traders adjust their positions, and prices move accordingly. This mechanism ensures the market price incorporates available information in real time.

This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, once the BMW International Open's first round concludes and the leaderboard is finalized. The outcome is determined by identifying which golfer holds the lead at the end of Round 1, verified against credible public sources covering professional golf. Early leaders, final-round surges, and any scoring adjustments are all factored into the official result. Resolution occurs shortly after the round ends and the final standings are confirmed.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Round 1 concludes. Early tournament performance, weather conditions affecting course difficulty, and real-time leaderboard updates all influence trader sentiment. Injury reports or late withdrawals by top contenders can trigger sharp repricing. As the round progresses and more players complete their rounds, the field of potential leaders narrows, and odds concentrate on the frontrunners. Breaking news about player form or course conditions may also prompt rapid adjustments as traders reassess probabilities.