TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 23, 6:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Rory McIlroy will finish in the top five positions at the 2026 BMW Championship on Kalshi, with the current probability set at 99.0%. The market resolves based on the tournament results. A key date to keep in mind is September 6, 2026, when the tournament window ends and all final positions will be confirmed, determining the market outcome based on McIlroy's performance during the event.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the associated golfer finishes in the top five positions, including ties, in the 2026 BMW Championship. If the golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate, the market resolves to 'Fair Market Price' if this occurs before teeing off, and to 'No' if it occurs after teeing off. These rules apply uniformly across all individual golfer markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant's performance outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final leaderboard after the last round will determine which golfers finished in the top five, and contracts for those players will settle accordingly. No additional interpretation or platform-specific rules are needed beyond confirming the official tournament results.
Several key signals could impact pricing in this market before it resolves on Sep 6, 2026. Performance trends in preceding tournaments, such as strong or weak showings by contenders, will heavily influence trader sentiment. Injuries, changes in player form, or weather conditions affecting course play may also cause rapid shifts. Additionally, betting patterns on Kalshi—like large trades or volume spikes—can move the market quickly, especially with limited liquidity. As the tournament nears, real-time updates from practice rounds or expert commentary may further refine odds, making this market highly responsive to both on-course developments and trader behavior.