TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 187M
- Kalshi
Above 187M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Billie Eilish's worldwide streaming performance during the week of July 10-16, 2026. Streaming data is collected from major platforms and published by Luminate Data, typically within 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Billie Eilish's total worldwide streams during the July 10-16, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with resolution to Yes if the artist exceeds that threshold. Data publication typically occurs within approximately 48 hours following the end of the tracking period.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with direct financial incentives to be accurate. While music industry analysts may rely on historical trends and promotional calendars, this market reflects live trader conviction weighted by capital at risk. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from streaming analysts or music publications can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside relative to expert opinion, making it a useful cross-check for understanding expected weekly streaming performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different weekly stream-count outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; higher prices indicate stronger trader confidence in that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces—such as playlist placements, chart performance, or promotional announcements—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to move in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, at which point the actual weekly stream count for Billie Eilish is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing reported streaming data to the threshold or range specified in the market conditions. Once the resolution period closes and final figures are confirmed, the market settles and traders' positions are paid out according to which outcome occurred.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market: new song releases or surprise drops, playlist additions on major streaming platforms, chart debuts or peaks, tour announcements, social media viral moments, and media coverage. Award nominations or wins can also drive listener engagement. Additionally, broader trends—such as seasonal listening patterns or competing releases from other artists—may influence weekly stream totals. Real-time streaming data leaks or early reports from industry insiders can trigger sharp repricing as traders incorporate fresh information into their positions.
