TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 189M
- Kalshi
Above 189M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 11, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the total worldwide streaming performance of Billie Eilish during the week of July 3-9, 2026. Streaming data is aggregated across all major digital music platforms globally and published by Luminate Data within approximately 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Billie Eilish's total worldwide streams during the July 03 - July 09, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data. The event features tiered thresholds ranging from 189 million to 199 million streams, with each threshold representing a separate resolution criterion. Data is published up to approximately 48 hours after the tracking week concludes. Luminate Data serves as the neutral provider of streaming metrics and does not endorse or participate in market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than relying on periodic published estimates. While analysts may issue quarterly or annual projections, this market updates continuously as new streaming data and industry developments surface. Traders with direct insight into music industry trends can price in shifts faster than formal forecasts. Comparing the odds here to public analyst commentary reveals where the market sees upside or downside relative to consensus expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the collective belief of all participants about weekly stream volumes, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction that a given threshold will be met. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tight the bid-ask spread remains, affecting execution costs for new positions.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the relevant weekly streaming data is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on actual stream counts reported by major music platforms or industry tracking services. Traders should monitor official announcements and industry reports in the weeks leading up to the end date to anticipate how final figures will settle the contract.
Key catalysts include new song releases, chart debuts, viral moments, or playlist placements that drive streaming surges. Media coverage, award nominations, and tour announcements can boost listener engagement. Seasonal trends in music consumption and competitive releases from other artists also influence weekly stream totals. Traders should track Billie Eilish's social media activity, streaming platform algorithm changes, and broader entertainment news that could shift fan behavior and listening patterns before resolution.
