TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 191M
- Kalshi
Above 191M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 4, 2026
Closed: Jul 4, 2:31 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks worldwide streaming performance for Billie Eilish during the week of June 26 - July 02, 2026. Stream counts are measured across all major digital music platforms globally and reported by Luminate Data, LLC, with results typically published within 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Billie Eilish's total worldwide streams during the June 26 - July 02, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data, LLC. Each contract tier corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with Yes resolution occurring if the artist exceeds that threshold. Stream data is compiled from all global platforms and published approximately 48 hours after the tracking period concludes. Luminate Data serves as the neutral metric provider and does not endorse or participate in market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than relying on periodic published reports. While music industry analysts may issue quarterly or annual streaming projections, this market updates continuously as traders incorporate fresh data and market signals. The crowd-sourced nature of prediction markets can sometimes reveal emerging trends faster than formal forecasts, though both approaches have merit—analysts bring domain expertise, while markets reflect dynamic, incentivized belief from diverse participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different streaming outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to commit capital, with each contract's value ranging between 0 and 100 cents based on perceived likelihood. As new information emerges—such as playlist placements, chart performance, or promotional activity—traders adjust their bids and asks, causing prices to shift and revealing updated market consensus on weekly stream levels.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on actual weekly streaming data for the specified period, measured against the predetermined thresholds established at market creation. Traders should monitor official streaming platform announcements and music industry tracking services as the resolution date approaches to understand how final numbers will be validated and which outcome bracket will be deemed correct.
Several catalysts can shift odds significantly: new song releases or surprise drops, playlist additions on major platforms like Spotify or Apple Music, chart debuts or peaks, award nominations or wins, and viral social media moments. Media coverage, tour announcements, and collaborations with other artists often drive listener engagement spikes. Additionally, seasonal trends in music consumption and competitive releases from other artists can influence streaming volume. Traders typically react quickly to these events, so monitoring entertainment news and streaming charts helps anticipate market moves.
