TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 239,280,422
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 239,280,422 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved May 30, 2026
Closed: May 30, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Billie Eilish will accumulate more than 239.3 million worldwide streams during the May 22–28, 2026 tracking week, as measured by Luminate. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 52.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate stream count data for that specific week, with results expected by June 1, 2026. Watch for any major album releases, tour announcements, or viral moments during the May 22–28 tracking period that could drive streaming volume above the threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Billie Eilish's streaming performance. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on subjective estimates and historical trends, prediction markets aggregate live financial incentives—traders profit only if their forecast is correct. This creates a dynamic, self-correcting mechanism. Comparing Kalshi odds to music industry analysts' expectations or Luminate historical data can reveal whether the market is pricing in upcoming releases, promotional activity, or seasonal streaming patterns that experts may have overlooked.
On Kalshi, the Billie Eilish streams market is priced as a binary contract: Will she exceed 239,280,422 streams on Luminate from May 22–28, 2026? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects trader conviction about her streaming volume during that specific week. Prices move based on new music releases, playlist placements, social media momentum, and real-time Luminate data. Traders buy YES contracts if bullish on her streams or SHORT if bearish, with the contract settling at $1 (YES wins) or $0 (NO wins) depending on the final Luminate count.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the May 22–28, 2026 tracking period closes and Luminate publishes official stream counts for Billie Eilish. The outcome is determined by whether her total streams during that week exceed the threshold of 239,280,422. Resolution is objective and data-driven, tied directly to Luminate's published figures. Once the official count is released and verified, the contract settles automatically, and traders receive payouts based on the final result.
Several catalysts could shift odds before Jun 1, 2026. A surprise single or album release during May 22–28 would likely boost streaming volume and push YES odds higher. Playlist additions on major platforms like Spotify or Apple Music, viral social media moments, or a high-profile performance could drive listener engagement. Conversely, competing releases from other major artists or a quiet week with no new content might lower expectations. Real-time Luminate data leaks or industry reports about streaming trends could also trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust to fresh information about her weekly performance trajectory.
