TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:40 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 10, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Polymarket
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 10, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Billboard Hot 100. While analysts often rely on streaming numbers, radio play, and sales data, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data. It’s a fascinating comparison to see whether the market anticipates shifts in popularity before they are reflected in conventional analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular song reaching the number two spot. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The current top outcome is not available, but traders are actively adjusting their positions based on the latest chart data and industry news, influencing the probabilities reflected in the share prices.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 10 is officially published and the song holding the number two position is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official chart ranking released by Billboard. Traders will then be able to see which song accurately predicted the outcome and receive payouts accordingly based on their holdings in the winning share.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected surges in streaming numbers or radio play for a particular song could shift the odds. Major promotional events, like music video releases or high-profile performances, could also influence public perception and trading activity. Any significant news regarding the artists involved, such as collaborations or controversies, could also impact the market. Furthermore, unexpected drops in popularity for currently favored songs could create opportunities for other contenders to gain ground in this market.
