TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group forecasts which song will be ranked #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 26, 2026. The Billboard Hot 100 ranks songs based on streaming, radio airplay, and sales data. This is a prediction market about a future music chart ranking.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers individual markets for each song, while Polymarket offers markets for specific songs *and* an 'Other' option, creating a scope difference.Hero tip: Be mindful of the 'Other' option on Polymarket if you believe a song not listed on Kalshi has a reasonable chance of topping the charts.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers markets for specific songs and an 'Other' option. Resolves based on the official Billboard chart, using alphabetical tiebreakers. Includes a timeframe for chart publication, resolving to 'Other' if no chart is published within 14 days.
- Kalshi: Offers individual markets for each song. Resolves if *that specific song* is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. No 'Other' option exists; one of the listed songs *must* resolve 'Yes' if a chart is published.
Polymarket
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of September 26, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Kalshi
The event determines the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific song, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular song occupies the top position on the chart for the specified week. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying that neither Billboard nor the Hot 100 chart endorses these markets, and any references to Billboard or its marks are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement. The resolution hinges solely on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart published for that week, with no additional conditions or qualifications affecting the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors or biases, while this market reflects the 'wisdom of the crowd,' aggregating diverse opinions through financial incentives. The current price action suggests a higher probability for a specific song than many initial analyst predictions indicated. This is because traders are directly putting their capital behind their beliefs, leading to a potentially more accurate forecast. The market’s volume of $22,003 demonstrates significant engagement and belief in the predictive power of this approach.