TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:40 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 10, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Polymarket
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of October 10, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional music industry analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on streaming numbers and radio play, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders anticipating which song will ultimately top the Billboard Hot 100. Discrepancies can arise due to factors analysts may not fully account for, such as viral trends or unexpected surges in popularity. It's often insightful to compare the most likely outcome in this market to the predictions made by music experts and publications.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular song reaching number one. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a song, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. Conversely, if traders sell shares, the price decreases. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 10 is officially released and the number one song is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% in favor of the song that Billboard officially designates as the number one song on that chart. The resolution process relies on the established methodology of Billboard's chart rankings, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before resolution. A major artist collaboration, a viral TikTok trend featuring a specific song, or a surprise release from a popular musician could all shift the odds. Unexpected radio airplay or a surge in streaming numbers for a previously overlooked track could also cause movement. Furthermore, any news regarding potential promotional campaigns or endorsements could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in probabilities.
