TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
- Polymarket
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 24, 2026
Closed: Aug 24, 5:47 PM EST
Polymarket
Todo Lo Fue - (Video Oficial) - Lenin Ramirez - DEL Records 2026
Description
This event group tracks prediction markets for which song will occupy the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of August 29, 2026. Markets span multiple platforms with varying song candidates and resolution criteria.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Settlement Source and Timing MismatchHero tip: Avoid arbitrage between these platforms. Polymarket resolves to Billboard data; Kalshi resolves to YouTube data. Treat them as entirely separate markets.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Billboard Hot 100 chart titled "Week of August 29, 2026", with tie-breaking by alphabetical order. Market resolves to “Other” if chart not published within 14 days of expected release. Key quote: “This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 29, 2026.””
- Kalshi: Resolves based on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart dated Aug 19, 2026. Key quote: “If [specified song] ranks #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart dated Aug 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Polymarket
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of August 29, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the listed music videos reaches the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for August 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video ranks #1 on the chart for the specified date. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The chart data serves as the sole basis for resolution, with no additional qualifications or adjustments applied.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, odds reflect crowd-sourced expectations that can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on sales data, streaming numbers, and airplay trends. This market often reacts faster to viral moments or social media buzz, making odds shift more dynamically than slower-moving expert predictions. The gap between the two can widen when real-time events — like a surprise performance or controversy — occur.
Key signals include last-minute streaming surges, high-profile performances on awards shows or late-night TV, and any late-breaking controversies or endorsements. A sudden viral moment on social media or a surprise collaboration can also shift trader sentiment quickly. Monitor both platform odds and real-world media coverage, as this market often reacts to news within hours.