TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Fall-Off
- Kalshi
The Fall-Off - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Feb 18, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Feb 17, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group determines which album will rank #1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the week dated February 21, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer multiple outcome markets covering named albums (Don Toliver's Octane, Bad Bunny's Debi Tirar Mas Fotos, Morgan Wallen's I'm The Problem, J. Cole's The Fall-Off, Zach Bryan's With Heaven on Top, Taylor Swift's The Life Of A Showgirl, Olivia Dean's The Art Of Loving, and others) plus catch-all categories for unlisted albums.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve against the same official source (Billboard 200 chart for Week of February 21, 2026) with identical logic: whichever album ranks #1 on that chart wins.Primary resolution logic: Billboard 200 chart dated Week of February 21, 2026 published at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/Core resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when Billboard publishes the Billboard 200 chart dated Week of February 21, 2026
- The album ranked #1 on that chart is the sole winner across all markets in this group
- All other outcomes (named albums and catch-all categories) resolve No
- Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another album' outcome for any #1 not explicitly listed
- Kalshi lists 14 specific named albums; any #1 not on that list would resolve No for all Kalshi outcomes
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Chart Publication Delay: If Billboard does not publish the Week of February 21, 2026 chart within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, Polymarket resolves to Other. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume standard market cancellation/no-resolution protocol.
- Tie or Shared #1: Billboard's methodology produces a single #1 album per week. If a tie occurs, Billboard's published ranking determines the official #1.
- Album Not Listed on Either Platform: On Polymarket, such an album would resolve Yes under the 'another album' outcome. On Kalshi, all 14 named outcomes would resolve No, leaving no Yes outcome (market would be unresolved or cancelled).
- Chart Methodology Change: Both platforms reference the official Billboard 200 chart as published; any changes to Billboard's methodology are outside market control and the published chart is the binding source.