TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Angela Murray
- Kalshi
Angela Murray - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 11, 2026
Closed: Sep 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Angela Murray will be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before September 11, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Angela Murray being eliminated before that date, with a 1.0% probability assigned to Dee Valladares being eliminated instead. The market resolves based on official elimination announcements from Big Brother Season 28, as reported by broadcasts, websites, and social media. Keep a close watch on the live eviction show scheduled for September 9, 2026, as the outcome of that event will likely determine the resolution of this market before the final resolution date of September 11, 2026.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified contestant is officially eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before September 11, 2026. Elimination is defined to include being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntary withdrawal, disqualification, or producer removal. The elimination must be declared through official program broadcasts, the show's website, verified social media accounts, or official press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations are counted, and an initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed in the same episode, temporary suspensions, medical holds, or being runner-up in the finale do not count. If the season is canceled without any eliminations being declared, all markets resolve to 'No.' The markets are descriptive references to Big Brother and do not imply endorsement or affiliation with the show.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often differ from those of traditional entertainment analysts. While analysts frequently rely on social media sentiment and narrative arcs, this market is driven by actual money on the line. This means traders are directly expressing their beliefs about who will be eliminated, providing a unique perspective. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and access to information; analysts may focus on storyline potential, while traders prioritize perceived strategic vulnerabilities. It's fascinating to compare the two and see where they align or diverge in predicting the Week 9 elimination.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing each contestant's chance of survival. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information arises, these prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of each houseguest’s position. The market aggregates the collective wisdom of participants, creating a real-time forecast of the Week 9 elimination.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Week 9 elimination is verified against credible public reporting from the official Big Brother broadcast and associated sources. The contestant who is voted out of the house during Week 9 will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the show’s producers, ensuring a clear and verifiable determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be settled based on their positions.
Several events could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major power shifts within the Big Brother house, such as a successful coup or a change in Head of Household, would likely cause substantial movement. Unexpected alliances or betrayals could also dramatically alter perceptions of each houseguest’s safety. Furthermore, any public statements or actions by the contestants that reveal strategic intentions or create friction could influence trading activity. Live feed developments, especially those highlighting vulnerabilities or strong social bonds, are key signals traders will watch closely before Sep 11, 2026.
