TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Ben Shelton will win the third set in his match against Tallon Griekspoor at the 2026 US Open, with the current probability on Kalshi standing at 99.0% for Ben Shelton to claim set three, and 1.0% for Tallon Griekspoor. The market will resolve based on the official match results. The decisive moment to watch will be the match itself, scheduled to conclude by August 30, 2026, which will determine the set's winner and settle this market definitively.
The market resolves based on which player wins the third set of the specified professional tennis match at the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round of 128. If the match does not commence due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation before any play occurs, the market will settle at a fair price. Postponements or delays will keep the market open until the rescheduled match concludes, with a two-week window for closure. In cases of retirement during the match, any markets that can be definitively settled based on completed play will do so, while unresolved markets will settle at a fair market price determined by the Exchange. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through their bids and offers, which determines the current implied probability for each outcome. The top outcome’s displayed chance reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants. Market depth and recent trade volumes also influence pricing shifts, allowing sharp traders to react quickly to new information or momentum changes.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends solely on who wins the third set during the match, as officially recorded by tournament officials and widely reported. No subjective judgment is involved — the raw match result determines the settlement.
Key signals that could shift this market include player form leading up to the match, recent head-to-head performances, injury updates, and weather conditions if the event is outdoors. Any last-minute changes in seeding or schedule, as well as pre-match media commentary from players or coaches, may also influence trader sentiment and drive volume spikes as the event approaches.