TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 86,158,221
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 86,158,221 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved May 30, 2026
Closed: May 30, 4:52 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Justin Bieber's album Believe will accumulate more than 86,158,221 worldwide streams on Luminate during the May 22–28 tracking week. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 48.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate streaming data for that specific week, with the market settling by June 1, 2026. Watch the May 22–28 tracking period closely, as final stream counts during this window will determine the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the 'Believe' streams market is priced as a binary contract: traders buy or sell shares corresponding to whether the outcome resolves yes or no. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects the consensus of all active traders. Share prices move continuously as new information arrives—such as real-time Luminate data, radio spins, or social-media momentum—allowing participants to enter or exit positions throughout the week leading up to the May 22–28 measurement window.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Luminate streaming data for 'Believe' during the May 22–28 period. The outcome hinges on whether the cumulative stream count meets or exceeds the 86,158,221-stream threshold specified in the contract. Luminate is a widely-used music industry measurement platform, ensuring transparent and verifiable settlement based on actual listener activity across major streaming services.
Several catalysts could shift market odds before resolution. Major playlist placements on Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube could drive streaming volume upward. Radio airplay, social-media virality, or celebrity endorsements may accelerate listener engagement. Conversely, competing releases or chart competition could dampen streams. Real-time Luminate data releases during the May 22–28 window will provide concrete progress toward the 86,158,221-stream target, allowing traders to adjust positions based on actual performance versus market expectations.
